BRICS+, Strategic Petroleum Reserve & Metaphysics
The Great Simplification #92 with Arthur Berman
This Week…
Today, Art Berman returns to give a broad update on the global energy situation - from BRICS+ to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and shale oil depletion/investment. Given Art’s longtime apt insights into the global dynamics of oil - and as the world continues to have our energy blinders removed, I plan for him to return every few months on this topic (as long as the podcast is going). As Art says, ‘oil is the economy’ and understanding the complex dynamics of the oil market provides insight into the entire economic system.
Arthur E. Berman is a petroleum geologist with over 35 years of oil and gas industry experience. He is an expert on U.S. shale plays and is currently consulting for several E&P companies and capital groups in the energy sector.
How do geological luck and foreign policy create the global stage for oil markets? What is the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, have we been misusing it, and does it matter in comparison to larger energy policy blunders? What are the current dynamics affecting oil prices and how will this affect the long term out-look of oil availability?
Please note: this episode was recorded prior to the Israel/Palestine events of last weekend.
In case you missed it…
Last Friday, I released a Frankly in reference to one of my favorite, timeless book series, The Lord of the Rings, to describe ‘the nine rings for mortal men’ - evolutionary behavioral tendencies that are common among humans but have become counterproductive within the context of our modern culture. These traits combine to drive the growth of the Superorganism - but they are pulled forward by the ‘one ring to rule them all’, which today is the positive feedbacks of power resulting from the synergy of agricultural surplus, fossil energy, money, and now Artificial Intelligence accelerating it all. Can this out of control power dynamic be broken and redirected away from the influence of this “One Ring”?
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This was a really interesting listen. I really enjoy your work on energy and how it all ties together.
In the last few minutes you discussed other deep dives into energy. Full disclosure; I am in favor of dramatic investment and development of nuclear energy. Both SMR and large infrastructure. Nuclear was mentioned as one of the potential topics and I will definitely look out for this one!
The potential of nuclear to lower the cost of both electricity and process heat for chemical and manufacturing industry would be revolutionary, both for the standard of living of a huge segment of the population of the world and for the climate.
The reasons we are not able to do this seem to all be regulatory and based on historic fears that have proven to be unjustified.
You have shied away from nuclear in other discussions, I would really like to hear a thorough discussion of this.
All the best.
Such an interesting listen, I then watched much of it on youtube and followed along in the transcript. Everything Art says makes total sense, except for one thing. We will not go back to the standard of living of the 1960s, 70s, or 80s because of (a) a much impoverished world, (b) far worse economic inequality, and (c) forced consumption.
Forced consumption. Less public transit means you have to drive. More cars means it is life threatening to run an errand on a bike, so you have to drive. Planned obsolescence means you have to replace rather than repair, and the thing breaks sooner. It also means that your old computer won't run new software or even browse modern websites. Insurance on more things is now required as well as more expensive. Medical costs are higher. DIY doesn't even save money - fabric to sew your own clothes or yarn to knit your own sweater costs more than the manufactured clothes. You can't just buy one of something small, you have to buy a 12 pack even if that would last the rest of your life. Household maintenance costs are higher. You are excluded from a social life and many other things unless you have a smartphone. With brick and mortar stores closing left and right, you have to either travel farther or order truck delivery. Most of us have to travel farther to get out in nature. All your food is prepackaged, mostly with tons of single use plastic. Food grown with chemicals lacks micro nutrients, leaving us unsatisfied, causing us to eat more and gain weight. You gain weight and then you need new clothes.
According to FRED, real personal consumption per capita is 4x what it was in 1960, but the skyrocketing income of the top 0.01% has left the rest of us behind, with the bottom quintile eating dirt. There is no possibility of a lower standard of living for them. It's just death or charity.
(editing my post at 5am the next morning)
What keeps me up at night is the problem of intermittency. I see no emissions-free, eco-friendly way to address it. Intermittent power is a problem we didn't have in the '60s, and arguably have never had since the taming of fire.
The big picture of the human predicament has to consider both energy and the environment's ability to absorb waste. GHG emissions have already burdened the atmosphere with more carbon than the PETM spike. We don't know where the tipping points are, some appear to be underway, and the risks to all megafauna are inconceivable. The effects on the oceans are similarly catastrophic.
I don't know of any means of producing heat for housing and cooking that does not directly produce emissions other than batteries and nuclear, and I do not know of any way of producing either without both emissions and mining devastation. Biofuels not only emit, they also require acreage. Burning wood leads to deforestation, the condition that led the Brits to start burning coal in the first place. I'd love to see an episode on Passive House design. That can reduce or eliminate direct emissions and energy use, but I do not know to what extent it embodies energy and emissions, mining, materials transport, or other harm. We can also focus more on warming bodies rather than spaces. Low Tech Magazine has articles about this. Long live Jimmy Carter and his sweaters. Warm up bean bags full of pebbles while cooking and insert them into interior pockets in clothes. Could warming-bulges ever become fashionable?
Solar based electricity or even direct solar heating can cook food when the sun shines. How do you feel about being unable to warm up your food or boil water for coffee or tea after dark or before sunrise? What about bathing? If The Future Is Rural (Jason Bradford), and many more of us labor on farms, we will need daylight for outdoor farm labor. Does that mean that some segment of the population, probably women, must return to the kitchen during the day in order to cook the food using solar flows? After a day of farm labor, how is a person supposed to take a bath?
While we are nowhere near these intermittancy scenarios, I am puzzled about what to recommend to my community. I used to be on an energy transition task force for the local government, before it was disbanded due to lack of interest. I may be able to restart it as elected officials turn over. We have a plan to join in an aggregate community solar farm. I pointed out that intermittancy means we have to continue to rely on either natural gas, nuclear, or batteries. Natural gas = GHG emissions. Nuclear is out of our control. Grid-scale batteries not only embody both high energy and mining destruction, but also require far more solar panels to charge them.
My only other idea is smaller private batteries. If a household had a battery-operated bath water heater, for example, household members would quickly learn to take short baths and bathe in used bathwater. I don't know of any such thing being manufactured, or how to make one.
Is anyone else out there grappling with these questions? Internet searches don't yield anything useful.