Reality, Probability, and Perception | Frankly #29

How certain are you that the world will unfold as you expect? Today, I am going to explain a concept that I’ve taught my students and use in my own life to view the future - a probabilistic view of future outcomes. This is a tool frequently used in industries such as retirement planning, and finance. While there will ultimately be only one outcome, the odds of that future fall in a distribution, with some results much more likely than others. These odds shift over time by natural physical events - and by our actions. However, no one alive can know these distributions perfectly, but instead impute their own mental distribution shaped by their own bias, knowledge, and perspective. How does social media change the 'distributions' in our minds? How might we use a probabilistic approach to better understand what’s possible - and even to better relate to others? By thinking of the future as a spectrum, can we avoid falling into traps of certainty and complacency that inevitably lead to inaction? While there are some outcomes that are impossible, there are still many within our power to steer towards en route to a Great Simplification.

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