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Philip Harris's avatar

Nate, and people, I realise this is too long for a comment; I hope you might take it as a tribute. I follow your insights!

Long ago I found that my work turned on 'risk assessment', hazard identification, estimates of the scale of harm, quality control of diagnostics in the absence of 'known' data etc. Attempts at 'scientific consensus', didn't hack it, but some boundary scenarios did better. Some places you really didn't want to go, let alone take the risk, but it was still too easy to be optimistic in the short term, press on, rather than stop. A 'social' consensus for work is necessary!

Sounds all very 'left brain' (McGilchrist)?

Here are a couple of queries regarding 'scale'; most machinery, and global transport networks have been digitised over this last 40 years. The tools, the material components, can be replicated at scale, even designed at great speed, greatly minimising unit cost. (A 'profit-loop'?). However, it seems all key micro-nano components can ONLY be manufactured at even vastly greater scale? At more modest scale the tools will cease to be available?

The industrial roll-out similarly took off during the same period when the USA had a hegemonic position in the world economy, with control of 'security', and, significantly, controlled and directly enabled 'digitisation'. I can remember sadly, along the way the many key junctures when 'hegemonic' thinking lost sight (blindsided) the big assessments, ‘climate’ for one.

When it comes to your thesis and the USA, food/urban/ industrial life, and 'real wealth', I hope this quote is self-explanatory. Urban/industrial USA expanded at the same time as agrarian farming, but reached the frontier, the boundary, a limit, only a few years or so years before I was born. At the time the USA had a problem, not the predicament it has become at planetary and geological scales

In the book ‘On the Great Plains’, we read that the 1000 year accumulation of soil nutrients was quickly spent:

"They applied manure as it was available, rotated legumes when it was convenient. But they had no strategy for the very long term. By the 1930s, Rooks County fields had been planted, cultivated, and harvested sixty times without rest. Soil nitrogen was about half what it had been at sod-breaking and crop yields declined steadily. And now no western frontier remained. From the vantage of 1930s, crop agriculture in Kansas does not appear very sustainable. All the arable land in Rooks County - and in the nation for that matter – had been identified and plowed. Soil nitrogen and organic carbon drifted steadily downward, and with them yields and profits. Faced with this dilemma, farmers implemented a dramatic innovation in soil nutrient management. Rather than adopt one or more of the ancient strategies, farmers (and the industrial nation behind them) created a new option. They appropriated abundant cheap fossil-fuel energy to import enormous amounts of synthetically manufactured nitrogen onto their fields. …” page 219, ‘On the Great Plains: Agriculture and Environment’, Cunfer 2005."

Wyn Snow's avatar

To your question/point #4 -- viewing wealth as sustaining flows instead of extracting stocks -- this may be the biggest change we need to make in order to have a future as a species. We need to become a responsible gardener of Planet Earth and ALL its inhabitants, including the plant life, fungi life, bacterial life.

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