The ‘Decline’ of Nations: How Elite Surplus and Inequality Lead to Societal Upheaval
The Great Simplification #164 with Peter Turchin
The first few months of the new year have brought a cacophony of political news and power plays, bringing with it an uproar of public outrage in the United States and around the world. In the midst of an unprecedented moment in modern history, what can history – and even mathematics – teach us about moments of political unrest and upheaval?
In this episode, I’m joined by complexity scientist, Peter Turchin, to discuss his work modeling the key factors that drive patterns of peace, turmoil, and revolution in nations throughout history - and how those connect to the situation in the United States today. Turchin outlines the cyclical nature of ‘elite overproduction’ and its role in political disintegration, emphasizing the importance of economic inequality and elite struggles for control.
How does a declining standard of living, as seen in the U.S. over recent decades, affect a nation’s stability, civic engagement, and levels of violence? In what ways has history been shaped by the ‘wealth pump’ moving economic power towards the hands of the few? Lastly, how can we use these historical lessons to strengthen our communities and act collectively in times of chaos and instability?
In case you missed it…
In last week’s Frankly, I explored the concept of Light Triad personalities and their struggle against the Dark Triad forces shaping our social, economic, and ecological landscape. I examined how social media amplifies manipulation, why individual goodness is often outmatched by structural incentives, and whether strong, cooperative groups might hold the key to shifting the balance. Importantly, I questioned whether the Light Triad can ever truly compete - or if it must evolve new strategies to stand a chance in service of life.
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This podcast on the Decline of Nations is now my favourite, next the your interview with Douglas Ruskoff (Survival of the richest). Still lots of Unnamed excellent material on TGS, which I listen to again and again.
With everything going on in the world right now, this interview captures exactly where my head is, where I think the world is going, and what can possibly be done to stop us from falling headlong into World War III.
Interesting man. He doesn’t understand how energy - at the root of everything - works in our world, but interesting nonetheless.