In my work, I often refer to the ‘energy blindness’ of modern culture. That we swim in a sea of energy benefits but -like a fish not knowing what ‘water’ is - are unaware of both the specialness, and temporal nature of this core tenet of our modern world.
As part of the economic Trinity, we use technology to combine energy and materials into everything in our global economy. While economic growth has a 99% tether to energy (we get slightly more efficient over time), growth has a 1 for 1 tether to material throughput - cement, copper, sand, clay, steel, iron, wood, glass, etc. We have grown our material footprint 2.8% per year since 1900 - a rate at which we will double the size of our footprint by the year 2050 and quadruple it by 2075.
When we extrapolate current technology into the future we often do so as a $/kg or $/tonne forecast - leaving out the positive feedbacks in the physical supply chain. Our reality is that we no longer have the high quality mineral inputs available at affordable prices to scale growth from today’s levels, nor to meet many of the minerals-intensive renewable transition schematics. In effect, not only are we energy blind - we are ‘minerals blind’.
With me today to unpack all this is mining/materials expert Simon Michaux of the Geological Survey of Finland. We highlight some of the key misunderstandings about the relationship between technology and materials/minerals and end with some context and hope on how we can approach thinking about and addressing the human predicament. Please enjoy this conversation with my friend, Dr. Simon Michaux.
https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/19-simon-michaux