Someone once said that “people don’t change unless the prospect of not changing is worse”. We can only hope that the bottlenecks will not be too severe. Probability is a very complex topic and it also needs to be continually assessed. I will never get my head around it so I’ve decided I will do small things that I can do locally. I’ve recently started attending my town’s environmental commission meetings, and I’ve started growing vegetables in an allotment. I have a strong desire to cultivate soil. I think these things will help me make connections with people in my community and that will be advantageous to all as the bottleneck grows narrower.
Nate. Your 20 minute Frankly was a clear, concise, fact based analysis of our net zero delusion, geopolitical & physical reality. Your commentary was 10 times better and clearer than the observations of Izabella and Michael in your previous round table.
I wish you'd have an option besides paypal. I don't want to send money through them. Square, Zelle, Cash app? I use Square at Good Nature Publishing and they take any credit card.
Nate, I have questions about the impact of the tariffs.
1. Since the tariffs raise the price paid by the consumer for goods shipped from overseas, would they have a similar effect to a carbon tax?
2. My understanding of inflation is that it means an increase in the money supply without a corresponding increase in goods and services. Is that correct? If so, then if prices increase due to tariffs, does that affect the money supply? That is, is that price increase inflationary?
3. If a manufacturer relies on imported materials, or a retailer relies on imported goods, and they feel that their market cannot bear higher prices, then rather than pass the cost on to the consumer, they will pass the cost on to labor in the form of layoffs or wage cuts. If that still doesn't cut costs enough to keep them profitable, they will fold, laying off all labor. Did I get that correct? If this happens at scale, would the tariffs then trigger a recession?
Meanwhile, the government layoffs and recinding of already promised grants will have a domino effect. Businesses that sell to the government will lose the government as a customer, and depending on the proportion of their business that represents, they may fold. Then businesses that sell to THOSE businesses will lose revenue, and so forth. Meanwhile, businesses and nonprofits that lose the grant money that was already promised, and therefore they depended on, may also fold. Farmers are hit especially hard in this regard. A farm co-op I have invested in is teetering on the brink due to loss of promised grant money.
Sooo... these cascading business losses could also trigger a recession, could they not?
The next question is, while a recession could be devastating to the economy and consequently to many many people, wouldn't it also have the effect of lowering energy use and therefore lowering emissions?
Next, if raw materials for rebuildables cost more, would that slow down demand? Would slowing down demand then slow down mining? And wouldn't slowing down mining be a good thing for the natural world?
Is it possible that, despite all their worst intentions, the Trump 47 could turn out to be of net benefit to both the climate and the biosphere?
Someone once said that “people don’t change unless the prospect of not changing is worse”. We can only hope that the bottlenecks will not be too severe. Probability is a very complex topic and it also needs to be continually assessed. I will never get my head around it so I’ve decided I will do small things that I can do locally. I’ve recently started attending my town’s environmental commission meetings, and I’ve started growing vegetables in an allotment. I have a strong desire to cultivate soil. I think these things will help me make connections with people in my community and that will be advantageous to all as the bottleneck grows narrower.
Same here!
Nate. Your 20 minute Frankly was a clear, concise, fact based analysis of our net zero delusion, geopolitical & physical reality. Your commentary was 10 times better and clearer than the observations of Izabella and Michael in your previous round table.
I wish you'd have an option besides paypal. I don't want to send money through them. Square, Zelle, Cash app? I use Square at Good Nature Publishing and they take any credit card.
Nate, I have questions about the impact of the tariffs.
1. Since the tariffs raise the price paid by the consumer for goods shipped from overseas, would they have a similar effect to a carbon tax?
2. My understanding of inflation is that it means an increase in the money supply without a corresponding increase in goods and services. Is that correct? If so, then if prices increase due to tariffs, does that affect the money supply? That is, is that price increase inflationary?
3. If a manufacturer relies on imported materials, or a retailer relies on imported goods, and they feel that their market cannot bear higher prices, then rather than pass the cost on to the consumer, they will pass the cost on to labor in the form of layoffs or wage cuts. If that still doesn't cut costs enough to keep them profitable, they will fold, laying off all labor. Did I get that correct? If this happens at scale, would the tariffs then trigger a recession?
Meanwhile, the government layoffs and recinding of already promised grants will have a domino effect. Businesses that sell to the government will lose the government as a customer, and depending on the proportion of their business that represents, they may fold. Then businesses that sell to THOSE businesses will lose revenue, and so forth. Meanwhile, businesses and nonprofits that lose the grant money that was already promised, and therefore they depended on, may also fold. Farmers are hit especially hard in this regard. A farm co-op I have invested in is teetering on the brink due to loss of promised grant money.
Sooo... these cascading business losses could also trigger a recession, could they not?
The next question is, while a recession could be devastating to the economy and consequently to many many people, wouldn't it also have the effect of lowering energy use and therefore lowering emissions?
Next, if raw materials for rebuildables cost more, would that slow down demand? Would slowing down demand then slow down mining? And wouldn't slowing down mining be a good thing for the natural world?
Is it possible that, despite all their worst intentions, the Trump 47 could turn out to be of net benefit to both the climate and the biosphere?